Currently the world is facing what seems like a second corona wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to WHO’ specialis COVID-19 envoy David Nabarro, there is a huge chance of having a third corona before the vaccine is introduced in 2021. “They missed building up the necessary infrastructure during the summer months after they brought the first wave under the control,” Nabarro said. “Now we have the second wave. If they don’t build the necessary infrastructure, we’ll have a third wave early next year.”
“One has to react quickly to the virus, robustly and decisively,” he said. “Especially at the start, when the virus is still spreading very slowly in different communities. If you react half-heartedly, the problem will get bigger very quickly.”
Last year Europe briefly saw less infection spread after the summers, but the cases are on the rise again with the death poll on 12,026 in Pakistan alone so far.
This year the growth in the pandemic numbers have solely been between the ratio of exponential vs. arithmetic numbers. A major problem with the third wave has been the way numbers of affected people are measured. According to Nabarro ‘Exponential means the numbers could rise 8 times in a week, 40 times in two weeks, 300 times in three weeks, over 1,000 times in four weeks, and so on’.
The U-turns in policy and the failure to enact a national lockdown early enough this autumn have likely had deadly consequences. Doctors are now seeing patients who caught the COVID-19 virus from a family member who spent their time around people in festivals such as christmas and new year eve, that has resulted in entire families resulting in becoming infected from COVID-19.
The start of COVD-19 bright about an uncertainty of whether the Government showed lack of proportionality or not. However the government seemed more motivated by people’s fear to ensure smart lockdown all across the country. This was when the first lockdown was effective and despite the backlash, the government ensured smartly dealt with how the pandemic spread.
The second wave brought about a bit of speculation, as there was a spread of many types of variants that came forward for COVID-19 about how there was little too less known about the virus and it might be better to just assume the virus did not exist. Despite the rise of cases, it was assumed of a ‘herd immunity’ that came off as a challenge for the government to ease the lockdown and everything else that came with it. Once again, Pakistani people witnessed hysterical headlines and muddled assumptions than scientifically proven facts. Despite this, stricter measures were imposed before proportionality from any government side went out of the window.
As we head towards 2021, there is a new hope to look towards. Though there is speculation of a third wave, excessive restrictions may sabotage more systems than the previous waves.
According to the WHO representative Nabarro, in Asia there is a low number of corona spread as “people are fully engaged, they take on behaviors that make it difficult for the virus, They keep their distance, wear masks, isolate when they’re sick, wash hands and surfaces. They protect the most endangered groups.” Nabarro quotes.
Any attempt to fathom lockdown restrictions can be very crucial in this point of time. How we take on from here can be determinant whether we will be welcoming the third wave for corona or not.